ETS2 and Greek Property: Heating Costs Rise from 2027, and Who Pays for the Fix

Every November, the owner of a 1980s house in the Peloponnese fills the oil tank and treats the price as weather: it moves, but it comes back. From 2027 that stops being true. The EU’s second emissions trading system, ETS2, is set to put a carbon price on the fuels burned in buildings, heating oil and gas included, and unlike weather it only points one way. For owners of older Greek property the question is no longer whether heating gets more expensive, but whether they pay the rising cost or exit it.

The exit exists, and it is unusually well funded. Greece is running billions of euros of energy upgrade support through 2032, much of it financed by the very system that raises the fuel price. Our guide to Greek property energy upgrade grants covers who qualifies; our energy upgrade service manages the upgrade itself for foreign owners, in English, end to end. This article covers the mechanism that makes the timing matter.

What ETS2 Actually Is

The EU already prices carbon for power plants and heavy industry. ETS2 extends the same logic to the fuels used in buildings and road transport. From 2027, fuel suppliers must buy emission allowances for the heating oil, gas and other fossil fuels they sell, and that cost passes into the retail price. The system includes a mechanism designed to moderate the price around a reference of 45 euros per ton of CO2 in 2020 prices, releasing extra allowances if trading pushes above it, but the mechanism softens the price, it does not remove it. The final level will only be known once trading starts, so every figure here should be read as indicative.

What the Carbon Price Means for a Greek House

The arithmetic is straightforward enough to run at the kitchen table. Burning a liter of heating oil releases roughly 2.7 kilograms of CO2. At a carbon price around the 45 euro reference, that is in the region of 12 cents per liter before VAT, on the order of a 10 percent increase at recent Greek heating oil prices, and more if the price runs above the reference. A poorly insulated 150 square meter house in northern or mountain Greece burning 1,500 liters a season would carry an extra cost in the low hundreds of euros per year, every year, rising with the carbon price. An efficient house barely notices. An uninsulated one pays the full amount, indefinitely.

That is the structural point: ETS2 does not tax houses, it taxes waste. The exposure of any specific property is decided by its envelope and its heating system, which is exactly what the energy class on the certificate measures. Owners of older stock, the same stock facing the coming minimum energy performance standards, are holding both exposures at once.

Before You Budget Another Heating Season

Send the property details and how the home is heated before you write off the numbers as unavoidable. Our 139 euro Eligibility Check gives an independent read in English on the property’s exposure, the right upgrade scope, and any state support it qualifies for, credited in full if you proceed. Submit the details here: kgnordic.com/contact

The Same System Funds the Exit

ETS2 has a second half that owners hear about less. Its revenues feed the Social Climate Fund, from which Greece is allocated around 5.3 billion euros between 2026 and 2032, precisely to fund the transition away from the fuels being priced. That is the money behind the Exoikonomo renovation rounds covering up to 80 percent of eligible costs for primary residences, and behind the dedicated heat pump and rooftop solar schemes covered in our guide to heat pump and solar subsidies in Greece. The system raising the price of the old boiler is simultaneously paying most of the cost of its replacement. An owner who upgrades early collects from both sides of that design: subsidized works now, avoided carbon costs for every year afterward.

Who Gets Caught, and Who Does Not

The exposure sorts owners into three groups. Owners of efficient or upgraded homes, running heat pumps that deliver three to four units of heat per unit of electricity, partly on rooftop solar, are largely outside ETS2 whatever the price does. Owners of primary residences in older stock have the grant route open and every reason to use it while the current framework runs. And owners of holiday homes, outside the main grant, carry the same fuel exposure and upgrade on a privately financed basis, the case set out in our guide to energy upgrading a holiday home in Greece. The group with no good position is the one that decides nothing: paying the carbon price on an old boiler while the subsidy window that would have funded its replacement runs down.

Why the Timing Is Not Symmetrical

Waiting has a specific cost profile here. The carbon price starts in 2027 and compounds with every heating season. The grant framework is generous now precisely because the transition is early; support schemes historically tighten as adoption rises, not loosen. And contractor pricing for insulation, heat pumps and solar is still moderate because demand is still voluntary. When minimum standards and the carbon price begin to bite together, every owner of older stock calls the same trades in the same season. Acting early means today’s subsidy, today’s contractor prices and zero years of carbon cost. Acting late means the queue, at whatever both prices have become.

Own an Oil-Heated Property in Greece?

Before another season on the old system, we define the upgrade scope, confirm the grant or scheme the property qualifies for, and manage the works in English, independently, with the contractor invoicing you directly. Start at kgnordic.com/contact or see the energy upgrade service.

ETS2 turns an old boiler from a cost into a meter that only runs up. The response is not to predict the carbon price, it is to stop being exposed to it, with the state still paying most of the bill for the conversion. That window is open now. It is not designed to stay open.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q - What is ETS2 and when does it start?

ETS2 is the EU’s second emissions trading system, extending carbon pricing to fuels used in buildings and road transport. Fuel suppliers must buy allowances from 2027 and the cost passes into retail fuel prices. A mechanism is designed to moderate the price around 45 euros per ton of CO2 in 2020 prices, but the final level will only be known once trading starts.

Q - How much will ETS2 add to heating costs in Greece?

Indicatively, a carbon price near the 45 euro reference adds roughly 12 cents per liter of heating oil before VAT, on the order of a 10 percent increase at recent prices. A poorly insulated house burning 1,500 liters a season would pay an extra amount in the low hundreds of euros per year, rising if the carbon price runs higher.

Q - Does ETS2 apply to holiday homes in Greece?

Yes. The carbon price is charged on the fuel, not the owner’s residency status, so an oil-heated holiday home carries the same exposure per liter. Holiday homes fall outside the main renovation grant and upgrade on a privately financed basis, though the rooftop solar scheme has in some cycles been tied to the meter rather than residency.

Q - What is the best way to escape ETS2 exposure?

Reduce the demand, then change the fuel: insulation and glazing first, then a heat pump delivering three to four units of heat per unit of electricity, then rooftop solar to supply it. For primary residences in Greece most of this can currently be grant-funded, with support covering up to 80 percent of eligible costs, confirmed cycle by cycle.